NWS meteorologist: Corpus Christi dodged the bullet

The official start of hurricane season on June 1, and the reminder of Harvey’s recent destruction should motivate anyone into preparing for a possible disaster now.

“Corpus Christi dodged the bullet,” said John Metz of the National Weather Service (NWS), about Hurricane Harvey. “We were extremely lucky.”

Metz addressed staff at Naval Health Clinic Corpus Christi recently, about preparing for a new season in the wake of Harvey.

“In my 26 years as a meteorologist on the Texas coast, I’ve never been through a major storm. Harvey was the first – I never want to do that again,” he said.

According to Metz, if Harvey had tracked 30 miles to the left there would have been 53,000 homeless in Corpus Christi and an estimated damage of $23.8 billion.

Instead, Harvey’s tremendous wind and rain slammed into Rockport and Aransas Pass, swiftly displacing 15,000 households and causing $4.5 billion in damages.

Could the track have changed at the last minute?

Metz says yes, because storms wobble.

“Just two weeks after Harvey, Irma hit Florida. The forecast showed it going up to Tampa. At the last minute it turned 30 miles to the right and went into Naples. They do that,” he said. “It could have easily turned and come to ”

In describing the genesis of Hurricane Harvey, Metz indicated that forecasters didn’t initially expect a major hurricane.

“The initial forecast was for a category one to hit Texas,” he said. “We encouraged everyone to plan for one category higher because intensity forecasting is not a perfect science, and usually they can come in stronger. So we were advising to prepare for a category two. Also, the storm could have made landfall anywhere from Brownsville to Freeport. Anyone along the Texas coast was fair game before that hurricane struck.”

But in less than two days after Harvey regenerated into a Tropical Depression on Aug. 23, 2107, Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft data indicated that Harvey had become a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.

“There was a massive explosion in the intensification, the pressure dropped, and the winds increased,” said Metz. “Forty hours in total from tropical depression to category four!”

There wasn’t much time to prepare.

But Metz advises that having a plan will save you time and help keep you and your family safe.

“Go shopping and get your necessary supplies, and store those stackable bins in your garage or in your closets,” he says.

He also suggests updating your insurance policies.

“In Texas we need fire and theft, windstorm and flood,” Metz says. “Your agent can help you with all three. It takes 30 days for flood to go into effect. If there’s a storm in the Gulf you can’t modify your policy. And make sure you document everything in your home. Take pictures of all your possessions. They’re not going to write you a check until you list everything you had based on those pictures.”

Once a storms forms, the official five-day forecast becomes available.

“As soon as the watch goes up that’s when you start boarding up and start putting all of your plans into action,” says Metz. “It’s not the time to start planning for the first time – then it will be too late.”

A hurricane watch means you have 48 hours before the wind starts to blow.

A hurricane warning is issued 36 hours before the wind starts to blow, and Metz says that is usually when evacuations decisions are made.

“I highly recommend heeding evacuation,” he says. “And stay informed at all times.”

One of the best ways to stay current with the latest weather information is by frequently checking the Tropical Weather Outlook, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php.

It is an overview of the tropics and shows you everything that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching that could develop into a hurricane. It is probably one of the handiest tools to have, and the NHC updates it 24/7 throughout the season, June 1 to November 30.